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Growing worries have emerged about the possibility of armed conflict between East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as aggressive discourse has intensified in the last month.

What Did Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for passage to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has triggered a intense war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in 2023 that his country's sea access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrea ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. Following a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it landlocked.

Five years later, a territorial conflict started in which numerous people were killed.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrea's maritime facility of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and suggested the desire to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Reaction to the Statements

Amid persistent threats from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been confined to short statements on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a policy of reclaiming former lands.

Government spokespeople cautioned on mid-September that moves to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Ground

There have been little evidence of major military movements in the border areas between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast training completions of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The leader of staff section of the armed forces, General Hachalu, stated recently in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Previous Background of the Dispute

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the UK forces before evolving into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 the ruler terminated this system and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle followed, finishing with military reversal in the early 1990s. Independence was then approved by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, causing war in 1998.

Though this ended in a truce in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries stayed at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader the president. The two agreed to a statement that the war was concluded – a decision that gained Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then cooperators in the country's 2020-2022 armed struggle in the northern region.

Yet ties have since broken down again.